Pre-empting miscalculation between NATO, Russia, and Belarus

By Anna J. Davidson

ABSTRACT

Miscalculation has brought Belarus to the point of uncertainty. Long predicted by experts were the alleged interference and rigging of Belarus’ presidential elections results on August 9, 2020 and Alexander Lukashenko’s determination to maintain his position as president despite public opposition. Less predicted was the unprecedented degree to which the Belarusian government would forcibly and violently enforce the official election results in the midst of peaceful protests which in turn fuelled the sharp increase in the number of protestors, protest consistency, and labor strikes in Minsk and regional cities. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenko’s leading opponent in the elections, has fled to Lithuania despite having received 60-70% of actual votes according to exit polls (the official percentage Tsikhanouskaya received was 10.1% according to Belarus’ electoral commission). Remaining in Belarus is the steady increase of uncertainty for the country’s future and the future of its relations with the West, the East, and the voices within.

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